Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30ad…7ff5
other · 47 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage600d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $8 +$10 +134%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 09 $3 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $19 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $233 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,092 −$3 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,712 −$7 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $1,320 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 81% −$15
other 11% −$1
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
sports 1% +$9
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 19h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 40h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 43h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $8 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.2% +10.5% 17% 17% +8.3%
≤30d 15 +8.8% -1.6% 13% 7% -5.8%
≤90d 35 +3.7% -6.1% 11% 3% -8.8%
all 47 +2.3% -7.5% 13% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records