Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30af…52b5 crypto 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-7%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -20.0% -27.7% 40% 34% -23.0%
≤30d 35 -20.0% -27.7% 40% 34% -23.0%
≤90d 35 -20.0% -27.7% 40% 34% -23.0%
all 35 -20.0% -27.7% 40% 34% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 34% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 26% -30.3%
15% -40.9% 17% -37.1%
20% -46.7% 14% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$30 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records