Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b1…8d2f other 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,942 (-39%) realized −$3,065 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%45W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$93
14 days−$2,940
30 days−$2,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$2,900
sports 35% +$250
other 14% −$168
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -25.3% -32.4% 24% 22% -13.4%
≤30d 170 -32.1% -38.6% 21% 19% -55.0%
≤90d 170 -32.1% -38.6% 21% 19% -55.0%
all 187 -29.1% -35.9% 24% 21% -50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 21% -50.9%
10% -42.0% 20% -55.6%
15% -47.6% 18% -59.9%
20% -52.8% 16% -63.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$1,027
Realized−$3,065
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses45 / 142
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions12
Markets (closed)187 / 213
History coverage242d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 80¢ 100¢ $391 $489 +$98 (+25%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $400 $422 +$22 (+6%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 99¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+99%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+455%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +28%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +90%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $6 +$34 +550%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $21 −$14 -67%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $128 +$33 +25%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $506 −$76 -15%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -58%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$34 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $9 +$96 +1046%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $22 +$36 +162%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -84%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$6 -63%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 $0 -48%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $220 +$13 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +712%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 92¢ $26 15m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $401 30m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 32m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 46m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 47m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 50m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $302 54m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $92 55m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $7 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 94¢ $142 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 10¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 66¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $430 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 43¢ $19 3h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,027.47 · official $1,027.47 (match) · 461 history records