Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b2…53d5 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,034 (+1%) realized +$1,031 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%30W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,045per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$181
politics 30% −$45
sports 14% +$1,253
economics 4% −$5
world 2% +$15
crypto 2% −$17
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 +3.3% -6.6% 11% 2% -8.5%
all 117 +1.7% -8.0% 26% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 11% -8.8%
10% -16.8% 11% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 9% -25.5%
20% -32.2% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,440) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$6 · ×8.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$902
Realized+$1,031
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses30 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,045
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $899 $902 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $286 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,905 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,195 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,561 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,616 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $7,094 −$7 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,071 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $867 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,350 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,833 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,301 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $976 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,516 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $2,815 −$4 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $901 +$2 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,248 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,206 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $7,271 −$7 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2,268 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $2,356 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,567 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $30 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $679 +$1,019 +150%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-08? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-2.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11PM ET Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $236 4h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $251 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $286 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $262 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $341 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $341 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $899 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,595 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,597 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,518 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,520 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,573 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,558 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,561 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,596 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,599 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 20d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,674 21d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,677 21d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,581 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.14 · official $902.14 (match) · 423 history records