Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30b2…afc6
weather · 263 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$115 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$146 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$147
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses193 / 60
Open positions9
Markets (closed)253 / 263
History coverage88d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 253 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$52
14 days−$85
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 96¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $74 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -89%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $17 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $26 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $268 −$124 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $65 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $95 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $55 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$14 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $118 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 08 $71 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $78 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $12 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 08 $53 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $39 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 08 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $25 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $39 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $76 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $29 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $19 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 13% -12.0%
≤30d 127 +3.1% -6.7% 82% 11% -12.1%
≤90d 253 -1.7% -11.0% 76% 6% -12.3%
all 253 -1.7% -11.0% 76% 6% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -12.3%
10% -19.5% 2% -20.7%
15% -27.3% 1% -28.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.46 · official $147.46 (match) · 962 history records