Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b2…cd83 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-14%) realized −$46 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day75.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$92
other 8% −$6
sports 4% −$4
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -32.0% -38.5% 23% 21% -34.6%
≤30d 48 -32.0% -38.5% 23% 21% -34.6%
≤90d 48 -32.0% -38.5% 23% 21% -34.6%
all 48 -32.0% -38.5% 23% 21% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 21% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -44.3% 21% -40.8%
15% -49.7% 15% -46.6%
20% -54.6% 12% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)48 / 58
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$14 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$12 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $11 +$8 +76%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -68%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.50 · official $5.55 (match) · 136 history records