Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b7…b82b world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$52
world 33% −$2
politics 14% +$8
finance 2% +$1
sports 2% −$11
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.1% -7.7% 33% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +1.5% -8.1% 31% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 46 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 9% -10.9%
all 59 -3.2% -12.4% 39% 12% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 12% -11.2%
10% -20.8% 5% -19.7%
15% -28.4% 3% -27.5%
20% -35.5% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage531d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $67 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $78 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $74 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $31 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $50 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $38 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $17 +$4 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $11 −$3 -31%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $199 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $43 +$8 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $70 −$45 -64%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 14 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $287 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Stony Brook vs. Hampton Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $16 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $15 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $32 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.44 · official $36.13 (match) · 202 history records