Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30bc…c428 world 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$17,879 (-32%) realized −$13,109 · open −$4,770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%122W / 84L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$17,834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$352
world 30% −$4,247
politics 19% +$771
sports 9% −$2,781
other 7% +$261
finance 1% −$23
tech 1% +$93
economics 0% +$26
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +26.5% +14.5% 64% 55% +21.2%
≤30d 203 +48.5% +34.3% 59% 47% -12.4%
≤90d 206 +48.2% +34.1% 59% 47% -12.3%
all 206 +48.2% +34.1% 59% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.1% 47% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here +21.2% 39% -20.7%
15% +9.5% 33% -28.4%
20% -1.2% 28% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +89% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$139 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$17,834
Realized−$13,109
Unrealized−$4,770
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses122 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions200
Markets (closed)206 / 354
History coverage31d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 200 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $3,066 $3,763 +$696 (+23%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $2,044 $2,347 +$303 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $809 $1,200 +$390 (+48%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 73¢ 15¢ $5,279 $1,096 −$4,183 (-79%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 31¢ 87¢ $253 $704 +$451 (+178%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $376 $373 −$3 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 92¢ $172 $357 +$185 (+107%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $285 $284 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $254 $268 +$14 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $201 $236 +$35 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $171 $228 +$57 (+33%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $186 $212 +$26 (+14%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $191 $199 +$7 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 84¢ $158 $192 +$34 (+22%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $143 $160 +$17 (+12%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $156 $158 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 84¢ 92¢ $139 $154 +$15 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $133 $145 +$12 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $127 $143 +$16 (+12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 84¢ $128 $142 +$14 (+11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $179 $137 −$41 (-23%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 67¢ 99¢ $87 $128 +$41 (+47%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 67¢ $116 $124 +$8 (+7%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $136 $123 −$13 (-10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 80¢ $87 $117 +$31 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $6 +$34 +515%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $24 +$6 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $31 +$23 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $164 +$104 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $56 +$37 +66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $31 +$146 +466%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $23 +$13 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $404 −$159 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +276%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 −$31 -64%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $40 −$10 -26%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$5 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $55 +$34 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $97 +$73 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $45 −$20 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $28 −$26 -92%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $110 +$147 +134%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $241 −$238 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $189 +$79 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $109 +$153 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $149 +$208 +140%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $113 −$64 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $286 −$7 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 10 $185 +$132 +71%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$46 +52%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $120 +$49 +41%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 −$8 -29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$20 +34%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +19%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $58 +$6 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $11 +$9 +83%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $138 +$96 +70%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 08 $200 +$368 +184%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $431 +$238 +55%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $8 38m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $8 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $8 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $8 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 95¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,834.21 · official $17,834.23 (match) · 3500 history records