Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30bd…ae11 crypto 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-10%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%104W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$13
14 days−$8
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$150
other 1% −$7
sports 1% +$6
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -21.8% -29.3% 35% 35% -19.8%
≤30d 49 -20.6% -28.2% 37% 37% -17.2%
≤90d 282 -31.4% -38.0% 37% 33% -20.2%
all 282 -31.4% -38.0% 37% 33% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 33% -20.2%
10% -43.9% 26% -27.8%
15% -49.3% 19% -34.8%
20% -54.3% 15% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses104 / 178
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)282 / 282
History coverage55d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 282 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1136 history records