Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30be…f4c1 crypto 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45,610 (+152%) realized +$45,610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%291W / 245L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -0.8% -10.3% 62% 50% -20.1%
≤30d 268 -37.0% -43.0% 34% 29% -37.9%
≤90d 536 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 49% -4.8%
all 536 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 49% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 49% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 44% -14.0%
15% -21.6% 39% -22.3%
20% -29.3% 34% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$40 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45,610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses291 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)536 / 536
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 536 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$21 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $92 −$31 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$95 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$60 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$25 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $73 +$37 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $117 −$63 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $99 +$164 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $98 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $97 +$57 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $70 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records