Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30bf…a6f7 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,387 (+1%) realized +$1,337 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate86%75W / 12L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$2,037per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$324est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,176
other 0% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.9% +75.4% 100% 100% +75.4%
≤30d 1 +93.9% +75.4% 100% 100% +75.4%
≤90d 85 +2.0% -7.8% 86% 22% -9.3%
all 87 +4.2% -5.7% 86% 24% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 24% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 14% -17.6%
15% -23.0% 7% -25.6%
20% -30.5% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$2,623) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$612 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized+$1,337
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses75 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$324
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage140d
Avg bet$2,037
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B Leo Team 85¢ 90¢ $798 $848 +$50 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21 Jun 28 $101 +$95 +94%
Game Handicap: GXI (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) May 21 $252 +$75 +30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $76 +$24 +32%
LoL: GIANTX iTero vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 21 $1,001 +$36 +4%
LoL: LUA Gaming vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 20 $1,003 +$116 +12%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 16 $4,002 −$4,002 -100%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs UB Alma Mater (+1.5) May 14 $3,502 +$69 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $650 +$13 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater - Game 2 Winner May 14 $1,851 +$21 +1%
LoL: Francesinhas vs Bubliki (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 14 $102 +$121 +119%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 14 $1,516 −$24 -2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 14 $2,001 +$24 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater - Game 1 Winner May 14 $1,851 +$21 +1%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 14 $649 −$640 -99%
LoL: FENNEL vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 14 $4,003 +$85 +2%
Game Handicap: BAR (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) May 13 $1,420 +$172 +12%
LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 13 $2,623 +$98 +4%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regul May 12 $2,504 +$134 +5%
LoL: BoostGate Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 12 $13,030 +$1,050 +8%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs KAJO - Map 2 Winner May 11 $3,187 +$63 +2%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs KAJO - Map 1 Winner May 11 $3,187 +$63 +2%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs KAJO (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season May 11 $3,502 +$72 +2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 May 09 $2,502 −$1,225 -49%
LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 08 $406 +$335 +83%
LoL: Myth Esports vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regul May 07 $3,402 +$71 +2%
LoL: Myth Esports vs Frites Esports Club - Game 2 Winner May 07 $3,252 +$65 +2%
LoL: Myth Esports vs Frites Esports Club - Game 1 Winner May 07 $3,252 +$65 +2%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 07 $3,238 +$64 +2%
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs UB Alma Mater (+1.5) May 07 $1,860 +$54 +3%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Dark Passage (+1.5) May 07 $1,206 +$223 +18%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Misa Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 07 $1,601 +$32 +2%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner May 07 $1,502 +$57 +4%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs UB Alma Mater - Game 2 Winner May 07 $4,002 +$81 +2%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs UB Alma Mater - Game 1 Winner May 07 $3,602 +$74 +2%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner May 07 $1,702 +$64 +4%
LoL: FALKE Esports vs LUA Gaming (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 06 $607 +$405 +67%
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Team Phoenix (+1.5) May 06 $187 +$40 +21%
LoL: Team Phoenix vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 06 $3,702 +$75 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 06 $217 +$37 +17%
LoL: Team Phoenix vs SU Esports - Game 2 Winner May 06 $702 +$56 +8%
LoL: Team Phoenix vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner May 06 $777 +$60 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 05 $3,602 +$73 +2%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner May 05 $3,602 +$73 +2%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner May 05 $3,602 +$73 +2%
LoL: eSuba vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season May 05 $2,500 +$50 +2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Aura Farmers (BO3) - MLBB Cont May 03 $3,251 +$68 +2%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 01 $8,007 +$519 +6%
Counter-Strike: MAGIC PIGGY vs Dripmen (BO3) - UKIC Masters Division P Apr 30 $150 −$140 -93%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Apr 30 $1,837 +$900 +49%
LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season Apr 30 $2,500 +$39 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro BUY Leo Team 86¢ $502 1h
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro BUY Leo Team 84¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro BUY Leo Team 84¢ $174 1h
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro BUY Leo Team 83¢ $42 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21 BUY 51¢ $101 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $76 41d
Game Handicap: GXI (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) BUY GIANTX iTero 76¢ $252 41d
LoL: GIANTX iTero vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY GIANTX iTero 96¢ $1,001 41d
LoL: LUA Gaming vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY LUA Gaming 89¢ $1,003 41d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season SELL Francesinhas 76¢ $1,491 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY ZeroZone Gaming 37¢ $306 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY Francesinhas 76¢ $504 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY Francesinhas 80¢ $80 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY Francesinhas 80¢ $80 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY Francesinhas 78¢ $92 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY Francesinhas 75¢ $378 44d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY Francesinhas 75¢ $382 44d
LoL: FENNEL vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season BUY FENNEL 98¢ $4,003 46d
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Ozarox Esports 98¢ $4,002 46d
LoL: BoostGate Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY BoostGate Esports 92¢ $13,030 47d
LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY Barça eSports 93¢ $621 48d
Game Handicap: BAR (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Barça eSports 92¢ $1,003 49d
LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY Barça eSports 97¢ $2,002 49d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 99¢ $1,851 49d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 99¢ $1,851 49d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $650 49d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs UB Alma Mater (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 98¢ $3,502 49d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY Team Heretics Academy 99¢ $2,001 49d
Game Handicap: BAR (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Barça eSports 83¢ $417 49d
LoL: GTZ Esports vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season BUY ZeroZone Gaming 66¢ $343 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $848.44 · official $848.44 (match) · 229 history records