Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30c3…2ccb other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$440 (-35%) realized −$452 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$472
sports 42% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-82.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -80.7% -82.5% 12% 12% -55.9%
≤30d 33 -80.7% -82.5% 12% 12% -55.9%
≤90d 33 -80.7% -82.5% 12% 12% -55.9%
all 33 -80.7% -82.5% 12% 12% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.5% 12% -55.9%
10% ← realistic here -84.2% 6% -60.2%
15% -85.7% 6% -64.0%
20% -87.1% 3% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$25 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 29
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 82¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+42%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $81 −$13 -16%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$84 +82%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 22m
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 25¢ $47 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $51 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 68¢ $50 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 26¢ $51 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 10h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 10h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.09 · official $97.09 (match) · 48 history records