trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 40% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 40% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 25 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 52% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 04 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 01 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $35 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 30 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 30 | $35 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 30 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 28 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 27 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| US military action against Iran before April? | Mar 30 | $1 | −$1 | -71% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? | Mar 21 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 17 | $1 | $0 | -40% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? | Mar 17 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 09 | $12 | $0 | -0% |