Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30c5…8511 crypto 535 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,082 (+81%) realized +$7,082 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%231W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day66.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$254
sports 11% −$95
other 7% −$81
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -59.9% -63.7% 29% 10% -31.1%
≤30d 295 -37.4% -43.4% 38% 24% -25.2%
≤90d 535 -25.2% -32.4% 43% 28% -18.7%
all 535 -25.2% -32.4% 43% 28% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 28% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 23% -26.5%
15% -44.7% 16% -33.6%
20% -50.2% 10% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,082
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses231 / 304
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)535 / 535
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day66.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 535 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$89 +467%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $35 −$30 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records