Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30c5…54c5
crypto · 93 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$18
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses29 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage119d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $11 −$1 -6%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? May 14 $9 −$2 -17%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 10 $28 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 06 $5 $0 -6%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? May 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 26 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 25% +$14
other 19% −$5
tech 18% −$2
politics 14% −$1
economics 12% $0
finance 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $6 1h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 2d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $21 8d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 9d
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 9d
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 12d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 18d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 19d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 20d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 23d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $6 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $7 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $26 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.2% -16.9% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 82 -2.3% -11.6% 29% 13% -9.6%
all 91 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 14% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 12% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 8% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.47 · official $18.47 (match) · 263 history records