Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x30c7…ac3b sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (290 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$66,360 (+9%) realized +$37,914 · open +$28,446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 67L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,978per market
Trades / day290.0pace
Fees−$10,768est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$127,813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$51,578
other 4% +$4,918
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (290 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -55.3% -59.6% 20% 20% -54.3%
≤30d 97 -20.9% -28.5% 31% 31% -42.5%
≤90d 97 -20.9% -28.5% 31% 31% -42.5%
all 97 -20.9% -28.5% 31% 31% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover290.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 31% -42.5%
10% -35.3% 31% -48.0%
15% ← realistic here -41.5% 30% -53.0%
20% -47.3% 28% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$12,999) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
43.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,696 vs −$9,039 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$127,813
Realized+$37,914
Unrealized+$28,446
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$10,768
Open positions8
Markets (closed)97 / 79
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$8,978
Trades / day290.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 38¢ 66¢ $30,702 $53,186 +$22,484 (+73%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 50¢ 62¢ $22,161 $27,701 +$5,540 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 70¢ 69¢ $17,466 $17,372 −$94 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 52¢ 52¢ $10,353 $10,300 −$53 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 25¢ 26¢ $8,750 $8,925 +$175 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 44¢ 46¢ $8,197 $8,477 +$279 (+3%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1,732 $1,845 +$113 (+7%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 44¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Jun 18 $242 −$242 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $6,298 −$6,298 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 18 $12,893 −$12,893 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 18 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 18 $13,500 −$13,500 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Jun 18 $3,051 −$3,051 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $14,583 −$14,583 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 18 $9,600 −$9,600 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 18 $3,217 −$3,217 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 18 $12,999 −$12,999 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $13,800 −$13,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 18 $3,525 −$3,525 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 18 $6,302 −$6,302 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 18 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $11,096 −$11,096 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $13,952 −$13,952 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $11,400 −$11,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $18,200 −$18,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 18 $10,893 −$10,893 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 18 $4,558 −$4,558 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $11,500 −$11,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group S Jun 18 $7,355 −$7,355 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $14,650 −$14,650 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $13,500 −$13,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $461 +$547 +119%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $3,303 −$3,303 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $12,740 −$12,600 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $1,507 −$1,507 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $17,992 −$17,810 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $3,669 +$4,468 +122%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $9,400 +$10,600 +113%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $13,719 +$21,281 +155%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,787 +$7,926 +209%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $7,282 +$7,283 +100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17,062 +$17,938 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12,828 +$16,326 +127%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $11,079 −$11,053 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14,116 −$14,000 -99%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $757 −$736 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $26,102 +$8,898 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $17,254 −$17,199 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $17,074 +$17,875 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12,938 −$12,900 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $915 −$912 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $1,078 −$1,070 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $12,729 −$12,658 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $779 35m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $1,426 35m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $8 48m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $238 49m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $49 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $26 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $185 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $57 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $156 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $3 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $3 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $3 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $13 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $6 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $1,279 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $2 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $21 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $41 50m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $4,123 50m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $190 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127,812.51 · official $127,820.85 (match) · 3500 history records