Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
30 0x30ca…d0aa sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$204 (+20%) realized +$188 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%14W / 7L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$166
other 45% +$42
crypto 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 62% +13.4%
≤30d 21 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 62% +13.4%
≤90d 21 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 62% +13.4%
all 21 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 62% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 62% +13.4%
10% -8.0% 62% +2.5%
15% -16.9% 57% -7.4%
20% -25.0% 48% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 64¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 80¢ $40 $69 +$29 (+73%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 52¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+186%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $66 +$36 +54%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $85 +$44 +52%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $45 +$31 +70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $17 +$14 +82%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $55 +$17 +30%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $30 −$16 -51%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$5 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$17 +165%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +57%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $40 +$18 +46%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 +$29 +68%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 +$18 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $51 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $15 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $15 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $45 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $31 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $72 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 45¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 67¢ $30 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $17 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $55 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $59 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $27 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.56 · official $238.56 (match) · 43 history records