Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30cf…704a other 139 markets active 4h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,724 (+12%) realized +$6,838 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%87W / 51L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,966
7 days+$3,030
14 days+$3,475
30 days+$3,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$4,637
politics 1% +$3,693
crypto 1% −$109
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +25.9% +13.9% 82% 64% +12.3%
≤30d 51 -3.4% -12.6% 61% 37% -2.2%
≤90d 138 +6.4% -3.7% 63% 46% +3.4%
all 138 +6.4% -3.7% 63% 46% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 46% +3.4%
10% -13.0% 26% -6.5%
15% -21.4% 16% -15.5%
20% -29.1% 10% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$105 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6,838
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses87 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage85d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $115 $1 −$114 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $1,034 +$1,966 +190%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3,144 +$397 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $93 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2,720 +$374 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,428 +$288 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2,615 −$198 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $117 +$94 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $880 +$39 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $496 +$104 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $45 −$40 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $706 +$106 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $741 −$90 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $311 −$310 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2,579 +$109 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $585 +$1,125 +192%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $27 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,931 −$402 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $251 +$14 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,653 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3,223 −$878 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,376 +$146 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,176 +$119 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $91 −$29 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,239 +$32 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $263 +$104 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $925 −$467 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,235 +$87 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $123 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $315 +$33 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $877 +$123 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 05 $1,390 −$217 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $712 −$269 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$10 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1,020 +$480 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $562 +$672 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $176 −$59 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $13 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $111 +$86 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $324 +$10 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $653 −$126 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $185 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $40 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $24 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $27 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $170 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 1480 history records