Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d0…7bdb other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$16
other 23% −$15
politics 19% −$7
crypto 11% −$15
economics 8% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 3% +$2
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 134 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage164d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 22 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 09 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 26 $55 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $242 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 01 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $182 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $158 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $163 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $153 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 25 $336 −$4 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 23 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $353 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 22 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $322 +$2 +1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 21 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $641 −$7 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $174 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $3 5h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $18 5h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $23 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 94¢ $52 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 94¢ $53 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $55 26d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $55 27d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 37d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 37d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $55 73d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $55 74d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 74d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 74d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $44 74d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $7 75d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $1 75d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $8 75d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $10 75d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $18 75d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $40 75d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $40 75d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $44 75d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $44 75d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 75d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 76d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 76d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 653 history records