Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d2…7994 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$13
other 28% +$2
politics 25% $0
sports 6% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 27% 9% -6.6%
≤90d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 27% 9% -6.6%
all 43 +1.2% -8.4% 28% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -8.3%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.1%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.43 per $1 lost it wins $5.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage299d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $55 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $47 +$16 +33%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 22 $27 +$3 +9%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $36 $0 -1%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on August 28? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 28 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $54 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $55 5h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $22 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $30 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $33 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $15 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $24 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $39 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $21 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $15 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $32 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $36 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records