Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d2…05a8 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,281 (-62%) realized −$1,281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%6W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,283
other 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 3 -51.3% -56.0% 33% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 32 -55.2% -59.5% 12% 6% -55.4%
all 70 -39.9% -45.7% 9% 6% -65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.7% 6% -65.9%
10% -50.9% 6% -69.1%
15% -55.6% 6% -72.1%
20% -60.0% 6% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$24 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses6 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage242d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 22 $59 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 12 $55 −$34 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 12 $21 −$8 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 11 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? Apr 30 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 30 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$5 +269%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $23 −$22 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 10 $29 −$8 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 10 $29 −$12 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 10 $53 −$22 -41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 01 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 30-April 5? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 16-22? Mar 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 9-15? Mar 16 $4 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 9-15? Mar 16 $13 −$10 -77%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 9-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 9-15? Mar 13 $8 −$5 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $21 −$15 -69%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 9-15? Mar 13 $12 −$9 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $7 −$4 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 09 $49 −$8 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 09 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Feb 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $59 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $1 20d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $3 34d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 34d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? BUY No 1¢ $2 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY No 4¢ $10 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $47 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1? SELL No 0¢ $0 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? SELL No 0¢ $0 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? SELL No 0¢ $1 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1? SELL No 0¢ $1 52d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 52d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? BUY No 1¢ $3 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? BUY No 1¢ $0 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1? BUY No 1¢ $1 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? BUY No 1¢ $1 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? BUY No 1¢ $0 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records