Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d5…6a38 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$117 (-36%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$98
other 10% −$32
politics 4% −$12
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -35.5% -41.6% 30% 30% -44.5%
≤30d 66 -35.5% -41.6% 30% 30% -44.5%
≤90d 66 -35.5% -41.6% 30% 30% -44.5%
all 73 -40.0% -45.8% 29% 29% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 29% -50.5%
10% -50.9% 26% -55.2%
15% -55.7% 25% -59.6%
20% -60.0% 23% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage404d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records