Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d5…36bf sports 282 markets active 6h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,328 (-13%) realized −$28,328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%112W / 321L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$786per market
Trades / day134.8pace
Fees−$2,845est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$11,100
other 30% −$3,189
crypto 2% +$1,970
world 0% −$1,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -61.5% -65.2% 15% 14% -43.5%
≤30d 433 -42.9% -48.3% 26% 24% -31.2%
≤90d 433 -42.9% -48.3% 26% 24% -31.2%
all 433 -42.9% -48.3% 26% 24% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.3% 24% -31.2%
10% -53.3% 22% -37.8%
15% ← realistic here -57.8% 20% -43.8%
20% -61.9% 16% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$778) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$638 vs −$405 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28,328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses112 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2,845
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 282
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$786
Trades / day134.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (309 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $614 −$614 -100%
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $157 −$160 -102%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 20 $1,739 −$1,739 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $97 −$101 -104%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $226 −$226 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $778 −$778 -100%
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $325 −$325 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $244 −$201 -82%
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,105 −$1,105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $359 −$359 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $939 −$939 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? Jun 20 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $730 −$731 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$22 -81%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-21? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Jun 20 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 20 $795 −$795 -100%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $315 −$315 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $225 −$559 -249%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Pharco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-17? Jun 20 $56 −$58 -103%
Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,602 −$1,602 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) Jun 20 $182 −$182 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 23¢ $235 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $91 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $95 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,959 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $714 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $112 7h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 40¢ $630 8h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 40¢ $2 8h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 40¢ $20 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,536 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 5¢ $37 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $18 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 94¢ $10 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 85¢ $34 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $24 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 72¢ $21 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $13 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $13 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $18 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 11h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records