Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30d5…f0c8 sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$492 (+1%) realized +$504 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 34L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,603
7 days+$2,287
14 days+$3,610
30 days+$4,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$5,462
world 15% −$4,150
other 5% −$592
crypto 1% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 50% +5.7%
≤30d 49 +21.2% +9.7% 57% 57% +13.0%
≤90d 67 +13.6% +2.8% 58% 58% -6.2%
all 76 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 55% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 55% -8.5%
10% -12.8% 54% -17.3%
15% -21.2% 54% -25.3%
20% -28.9% 47% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$472 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1,131
Realized+$504
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage471d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $451 $447 −$4 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $342 $338 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $451 +$437 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $468 +$420 +90%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $433 +$455 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $460 +$428 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $504 −$497 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $314 +$186 +60%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $183 +$317 +172%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $424 +$464 +109%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $332 +$445 +134%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $226 −$222 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $486 −$480 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $317 −$311 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $467 +$533 +114%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $254 −$250 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $348 +$207 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $309 +$468 +152%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $340 −$334 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $311 +$509 +164%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $486 −$480 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $460 −$453 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $477 −$470 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $442 +$274 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $282 +$273 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$123 -41%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $313 −$246 -78%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $700 +$550 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $427 −$336 -79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $433 +$455 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $276 −$272 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $232 −$228 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $500 +$750 +150%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $462 +$426 +92%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $735 +$765 +104%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $243 +$312 +129%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $309 +$246 +79%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner May 27 $52 +$225 +431%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $520 +$480 +92%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 26 $751 +$748 +100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 26 $690 −$690 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winne May 26 $1,052 +$447 +42%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 25 $22 +$28 +128%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner May 25 $720 +$280 +39%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $380 −$380 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner May 22 $225 −$225 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $348 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $355 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $456 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $433 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $504 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $451 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $468 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $460 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $314 45h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $183 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $226 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $424 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $332 45h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $486 45h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $317 45h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 50¢ $254 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $348 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $309 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $467 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $617 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $340 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $486 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $460 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $106 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 41¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 41¢ $185 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $477 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $174 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $282 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,130.53 · official $1,130.54 (match) · 313 history records