Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x30d6…9ca0 other 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$541 (+7%) realized +$543 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%93W / 96L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$69
sports 27% +$183
politics 9% +$285
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -49.0% -53.9% 33% 33% -20.6%
≤30d 3 -49.0% -53.9% 33% 33% -20.6%
≤90d 32 -63.2% -66.7% 19% 12% -45.5%
all 189 +9.5% -0.9% 49% 47% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 47% -2.4%
10% -10.4% 42% -11.7%
15% -19.1% 37% -20.3%
20% -27.0% 30% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$543
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses93 / 96
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)189 / 191
History coverage620d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $110 +$7 +6%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $5 $0 -8%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 29 $30 +$1 +4%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $20 +$13 +64%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Mar 26 $5 +$10 +203%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw Dec 30 $10 +$42 +421%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $200 +$39 +20%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Dec 15 $17 +$43 +253%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $100 +$17 +17%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) Dec 03 $1,284 +$68 +5%
Will Bournemouth vs. Everton end in a draw? Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fulham vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $166 +$56 +34%
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Dec 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-08-16? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? Dec 02 $21 +$7 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $117 32d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $110 32d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 42¢ $5 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 34d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 39d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 40d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 15¢ $5 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 51d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 51d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 51d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Lucknow Super Giants 43¢ $10 54d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders SELL Lucknow Super Giants 21¢ $9 54d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Lucknow Super Giants 23¢ $10 54d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders SELL Lucknow Super Giants 23¢ $22 54d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Lucknow Super Giants 10¢ $10 54d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 55d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings BUY Delhi Capitals 36¢ $5 55d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 32¢ $5 55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 55d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 50¢ $15 57d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.54 · official $417.54 (match) · 405 history records