Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d7…59c1 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$565 (+2%) realized +$553 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%32W / 106L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% −$37
other 29% +$457
politics 25% −$11
tech 2% −$8
crypto 0% −$14
sports 0% +$12
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.5% -35.3% 50% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 23 -50.6% -55.3% 30% 30% -27.5%
≤90d 41 -37.5% -43.5% 32% 32% -15.8%
all 138 -37.8% -43.7% 23% 20% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 20% -8.4%
10% -49.1% 17% -17.2%
15% -54.0% 14% -25.2%
20% -58.5% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$36 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$553
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses32 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage263d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 74¢ 77¢ $268 $279 +$11 (+4%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $14 +$8 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $446 −$47 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $158 +$66 +42%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 25 $190 +$28 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $202 +$45 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $35 −$33 -95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $194 +$49 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $234 −$232 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 −$53 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $390 −$44 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $782 +$109 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $516 +$269 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $4 +$16 +414%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $78 −$59 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $495 +$80 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $89 +$114 +128%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 13 $204 +$89 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $109 −$90 -83%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 04 $111 −$21 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 04 $89 −$23 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $90 +$13 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 03 $94 +$48 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 01 $3 +$1 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Feb 05 $594 −$7 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $271 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $22 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $227 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $225 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $158 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $159 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $194 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $192 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $142 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $55 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.35 · official $284.35 (match) · 715 history records