Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x30d7…4df3 crypto 138 markets active 6h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%83W / 34L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
other 20% +$7
sports 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +6.7% -3.4% 70% 38% -9.3%
≤30d 117 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 39% -7.9%
≤90d 117 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 39% -7.9%
all 117 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 39% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 39% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.4% 27% -16.8%
15% -18.1% 18% -24.8%
20% -26.1% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses83 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)117 / 138
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 6h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.76 · official $31.76 (match) · 390 history records