Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30d7…911b crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%93W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$11
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 94 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 94 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×386.37 per $1 lost it wins $386.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses93 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage72d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? Jun 09 $114 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 31 $113 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 30? May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 27 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 27? May 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27? May 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 26? May 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 22? May 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 21? May 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? May 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 19? May 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 May 11-17? May 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 16? May 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 14? May 13 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $39 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 22h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $55 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $55 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $19 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $97 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $115 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $115 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $115 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $115 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $115 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $115 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $115 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $71 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $44 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.55 · official $115.55 (match) · 231 history records