Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x30da…a11d sports 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+0%) realized +$152 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%61W / 112L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$515est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,548
14 days−$1,141
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$6,790
other 28% −$5,990
world 5% −$1,544
crypto 2% +$621
politics 0% −$160
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -23.5% -30.7% 30% 30% -29.6%
≤30d 110 -6.6% -15.5% 34% 34% -8.6%
≤90d 173 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 35% -10.0%
all 173 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 35% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 35% -10.0%
10% -26.1% 35% -18.6%
15% -33.2% 34% -26.4%
20% -39.7% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$434 vs −$238 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses61 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$515
Open positions4
Markets (closed)173 / 177
History coverage40d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Yes 52¢ 100¢ $278 $537 +$258 (+93%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 21¢ $300 $203 −$97 (-32%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 16¢ $300 $146 −$154 (-51%)
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 6¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $230 −$224 -98%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists Jun 17 $51 +$179 +350%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists Jun 17 $116 −$113 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $75 +$41 +54%
Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Sander Berge: 1+ assists Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $204 +$363 +178%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $306 +$427 +139%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,082 +$863 +41%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,611 +$472 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,011 +$600 +59%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $504 −$495 -98%
Saman Ghoddoos: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Arya Yousefi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,470 −$1,450 -99%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $510 −$500 -98%
Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $409 +$1,503 +367%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $816 +$1,447 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,334 −$2,300 -99%
Mathías Olivera: 1+ assists Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Federico Viñas: 1+ assists Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Rodrigo Bentancur: 1+ goals Jun 15 $308 −$300 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,024 +$4,233 +413%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Thomas Meunier: 1+ assists Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $815 +$1,237 +152%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 52¢ $282 1h
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $306 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $306 1h
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $230 5d
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $116 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $116 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $75 6d
Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $51 6d
Sander Berge: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $51 6d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $205 6d
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $51 6d
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $153 6d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $567 6d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $305 6d
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $205 6d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $204 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $733 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $306 6d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $204 6d
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $205 6d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $204 6d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,013 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,945 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2,082 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,083 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,611 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,611 6d
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $504 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.80 · official $909.80 (match) · 246 history records