Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30db…a9ab other 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%243W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$36
14 days−$10
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$48
sports 19% +$107
world 2% −$42
crypto 1% −$25
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.1% -36.7% 29% 29% -33.8%
≤30d 40 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 48% -8.0%
≤90d 349 -9.2% -17.8% 48% 48% -13.9%
all 450 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 54% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 44% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 34% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses243 / 207
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)450 / 451
History coverage103d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$18 +179%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 +$10 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $9 +$8 +89%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 +$12 +114%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7 +$2 +27%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 +$8 +73%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$12 +400%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$9 +82%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $4 +$10 +262%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $11 +$6 +59%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $12 +$2 +20%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 6d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 7d
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 8d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 8d
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 9d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 19d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 22d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 22d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 22d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $28.43 (match) · 880 history records