Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30dc…768e other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized +$0 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$33
sports 11% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 67% -51.8%
≤30d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 67% -51.8%
≤90d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 67% -51.8%
all 3 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 67% -51.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 67% -51.8%
10% -16.7% 67% -56.4%
15% -24.7% 67% -60.6%
20% -32.1% 33% -64.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$51 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+24%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $8 +$5 +61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$51 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $12 11m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $52 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $52 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $8 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $21 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.29 · official $57.38 (match) · 13 history records