Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30de…cc5f sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$114 (+11%) realized +$137 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%40W / 29L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$8
other 34% +$95
world 15% +$26
politics 4% −$11
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.2% -33.3% 44% 38% -32.5%
≤30d 19 -1.6% -10.9% 53% 42% -4.1%
≤90d 44 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 43% -17.9%
all 69 +8.5% -1.8% 58% 54% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 54% +4.7%
10% -11.2% 54% -5.4%
15% -19.8% 48% -14.5%
20% -27.7% 36% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses40 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)69 / 86
History coverage119d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 55¢ 33¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 37¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ 2¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +96%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $5 −$2 -41%
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 01 $10 +$8 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 29 $10 +$6 +61%
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Mar 28 $6 +$4 +67%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 23 $10 +$5 +49%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 23 $15 +$9 +63%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Trump say "Eli Lilly" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 15 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Mar 14 $10 +$6 +61%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $20 −$6 -29%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $10 +$5 +54%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $20 −$15 -77%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 +$9 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $3 32m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $3 45m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 47¢ $2 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 36¢ $3 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 14¢ $1 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 52¢ $5 20h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 11¢ $1 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY 44¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 59¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY 56¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 67¢ $3 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 57¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 57¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov SELL 66¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 57¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 60¢ $3 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 65¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego BUY 100¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 53¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $6 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 26¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.81 · official $58.81 · 166 history records