Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30df…5ca1 world 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-4%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$7
other 22% −$49
sports 11% −$59
politics 10% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.6% -7.2% 71% 14% -7.9%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 57 +4.9% -5.1% 42% 7% -9.3%
all 64 +2.1% -7.6% 45% 6% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 6% -12.9%
10% -16.4% 2% -21.2%
15% -24.5% 2% -28.8%
20% -31.9% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage492d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $122 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $36 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $53 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $112 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $9 −$3 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $61 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 23 $38 −$1 -4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $3 +$1 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $165 +$2 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 9m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $10 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $30 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $41 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $19 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $28 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records