Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30df…472f crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%46W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$6
crypto 13% +$2
other 7% +$3
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.3% -9.3% 79% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses46 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage523d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $64 +$3 +5%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $36 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $42 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $5,006 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $61 61d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 90d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $64 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $20 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 93¢ $43 150d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 180d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 181d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $43 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 243d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $26 243d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $39 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 271d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $49 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 300d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $47 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $28 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $49 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 365d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $39 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.84 · official $70.84 (match) · 118 history records