Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x30e6…8dc6 politics 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$14
politics 40% −$15
sports 6% +$25
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 121 -2.2% -11.5% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 129 -1.6% -10.9% 7% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×12.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage111d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $206 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $209 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $246 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $409 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $455 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $207 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $444 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $426 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $228 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $392 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $233 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $473 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $208 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $398 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $259 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 4d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $206 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $206 21d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $194 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $194 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 23d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 23d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 23d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $209 23d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $209 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $234 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $246 26d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $246 26d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 27d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 27d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $189 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 348 history records