Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x30e7…ff8a other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$7
sports 21% +$54
crypto 20% −$22
world 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +10.7% +0.1% 44% 38% -2.6%
≤30d 43 +23.3% +11.5% 49% 44% +0.8%
≤90d 46 +17.5% +6.3% 46% 41% -0.8%
all 46 +17.5% +6.3% 46% 41% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 41% -0.8%
10% -3.8% 39% -10.3%
15% -13.1% 39% -19.0%
20% -21.7% 33% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)46 / 60
History coverage41d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +262%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +195%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $1 $0 -13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +213%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +286%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$44 +262%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +220%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +159%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 24 $1 +$2 +146%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 14 $4 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 11h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 11h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 46h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 46h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.35 · official $68.35 (match) · 113 history records