Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30e7…d258 crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$896 (-15%) realized −$888 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$184
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$771
sports 15% +$37
other 14% +$278
politics 9% −$416
tech 2% −$21
culture 2% −$95
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.9% +9.4% 50% 50% +37.9%
≤30d 8 +20.9% +9.4% 50% 50% +37.9%
≤90d 26 +16.6% +5.5% 46% 46% -1.9%
all 95 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 37% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 37% -25.2%
10% -32.7% 34% -32.3%
15% -39.2% 32% -38.9%
20% -45.2% 24% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$44 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$888
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 58
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)95 / 105
History coverage700d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 +$136 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$84 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 15 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 15 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 14 $79 +$51 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 14 $135 +$49 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 14 $146 −$46 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 08 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 08 $62 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 08 $37 +$19 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 08 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 08 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 08 $16 +$30 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 08 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 09 $270 −$267 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 09 $190 +$171 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 09 $65 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 09 $128 +$175 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 09 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 09 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 09 $125 +$135 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 09 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 09 $79 −$49 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 09 $48 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 09 $45 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 09 $90 −$72 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 09 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 09 $60 +$23 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 09 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 09 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 09 $36 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 27¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 18h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.02 · official $382.02 · 740 history records