Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x30e8…f099 other 1262 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1259W / 3L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$17
sports 43% +$1
world 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 329 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 1135 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.3%
all 1262 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1259 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1262 / 1262
History coverage110d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hannibal Mejbri: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Taha Abdi Ali: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Firas Chaouat: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Aho lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gonzalo Plata: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alan Franco: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Simon Adingra: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
David Raum: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Jearl Margaritha: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Frenkie de Jong: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Virgil van Dijk: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs Ursa (+9.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Antonisse: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Gervane Kastaneer: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 3 - 3 CD Limache? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Stabaek IF 1 - 3 Egersunds IK? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Samuel L. Jackson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Mo Touré: 2+ goals Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
John McGinn: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Ché Adams: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Lenny Joseph: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Second half draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwauke Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Noah Okafor: 1+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Remo Freuler: 1+ assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hannibal Mejbri: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 58m
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Taha Abdi Ali: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Firas Chaouat: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Herman Johansson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Sebastian Aho lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Gonzalo Plata: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Alan Franco: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Simon Adingra: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
David Raum: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Jearl Margaritha: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Frenkie de Jong: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Virgil van Dijk: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Jeremy Antonisse: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs Ursa (+9.5) BUY Ursa 100¢ $5 11h
Gervane Kastaneer: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: CD Concepción 3 - 3 CD Limache? BUY No 100¢ $1 13h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Stabaek IF 1 - 3 Egersunds IK? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) BUY Infinite 100¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2891 history records