Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30e8…728e politics 95 markets active 6d ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
other 27% −$4
sports 18% −$3
culture 4% −$2
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 92 -7.6% -16.4% 9% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 84
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage364d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $69 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $143 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $77 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $75 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $226 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $75 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 27 $1 $0 -50%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 11d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $68 20d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $69 22d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 107d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $69 114d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $69 122d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 125d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 129d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 137d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $70 140d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $71 140d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $71 141d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $71 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.66 · official $66.66 (match) · 384 history records