Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30e9…3224 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,029 (-21%) realized −$1,027 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$951
world 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 29% -30.2%
≤30d 14 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 29% -30.2%
≤90d 14 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 29% -30.2%
all 14 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 29% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 29% -30.2%
10% -21.8% 29% -36.9%
15% -29.4% 29% -43.0%
20% -36.3% 14% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$303 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,027
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $214 +$2 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $163 −$147 -90%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$62 +62%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $599 −$589 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$496 +484%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,514 −$1,486 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,010 +$459 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $707 +$352 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY 4¢ $210 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $216 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $214 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $163 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 32h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $60 33h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 33h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $599 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,514 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,469 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,060 3d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $707 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.40 · official $206.28 · 28 history records