Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
30 0x30eb…7868 other 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$264 (+7%) realized +$349 · open −$85
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%53W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$571
14 days+$324
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$169
sports 26% −$11
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 56% +33.8%
≤30d 27 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 48% +6.6%
≤90d 40 -35.0% -41.2% 42% 35% +0.1%
all 107 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 47% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 47% -2.4%
10% -32.6% 41% -11.7%
15% -39.1% 36% -20.2%
20% -45.1% 30% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized+$349
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses53 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage157d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 77¢ 66¢ $603 $518 −$85 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 +$7 +51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$18 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,023 +$583 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $227 −$225 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 +$5 +49%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $6 $0 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $19 −$19 -99%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5 May 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $24 +$16 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $19 +$2 +12%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $14 −$10 -70%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? Mar 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? Mar 29 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Mar 28 $11 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $35 +$15 +44%
Ducks vs. Utah Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $8 +$7 +78%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Miami Open: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Coco Gauff Mar 20 $30 +$25 +85%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Mar 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $14 −$11 -78%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $42 +$32 +74%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $56 +$60 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $330 18m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $277 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $45 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $21 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 89¢ $21 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $24 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $15 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $3 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $3 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $3 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $3 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 43¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.61 · official $517.61 (match) · 191 history records