Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x30ec…21a0 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 441d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,505 (+5%) realized +$1,505 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,613per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$980
7 days+$3,815
14 days+$3,815
30 days+$5,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$4,785
politics 30% −$5,913
world 23% +$423
other 3% +$1,738
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +67.7% +51.7% 75% 75% +81.3%
≤30d 10 +65.3% +49.5% 80% 80% +58.5%
≤90d 10 +65.3% +49.5% 80% 80% +58.5%
all 19 +44.4% +30.6% 74% 63% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 63% -6.5%
10% +18.1% 63% -15.4%
15% +6.7% 63% -23.6%
20% -3.8% 53% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$725 vs −$1,823 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized+$1,505
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage441d
Avg bet$1,613
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $487 $487 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $253 +$267 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $507 +$613 +121%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $255 +$355 +140%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $256 −$252 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $254 +$246 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,003 +$1,097 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,027 +$1,738 +169%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $2,646 +$1,084 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,021 +$717 +70%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $1,997 +$1,050 +53%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $630 −$630 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $1,212 +$723 +60%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Mar 13 $1,000 +$776 +78%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Mar 13 $6,997 −$6,997 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 13 $988 −$988 -100%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $2,002 +$191 +10%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 09 $1,997 +$869 +44%
Will a White Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars? Jan 14 $7,465 +$423 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $251 40m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $245 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $254 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $253 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $256 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $251 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $256 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $255 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $254 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1,003 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $171 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $24 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $523 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $452 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,027 5d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $1,664 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 43¢ $685 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 43¢ $4 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 43¢ $55 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 16¢ $2,066 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,021 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 23¢ $979 20d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 10¢ $924 41d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela SELL Venezuela 100¢ $1,998 91d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela SELL Venezuela 50¢ $1,048 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.20 · official $487.20 (match) · 74 history records