Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ee…a587 other 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$13,532 (-12%) realized −$5,471 · open −$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%90W / 73L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$25,520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$375
14 days−$413
30 days+$2,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$3,579
sports 31% −$3,250
culture 5% +$1,221
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +32.5% +19.8% 78% 67% +46.6%
≤30d 39 +29.6% +17.2% 74% 67% +3.4%
≤90d 144 +35.5% +22.6% 56% 51% -16.5%
all 163 +30.7% +18.2% 55% 50% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.2% 50% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here +6.9% 39% -23.4%
15% -3.4% 31% -30.8%
20% -12.9% 25% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$356 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$25,520
Realized−$5,471
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses90 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions44
Markets (closed)163 / 205
History coverage95d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $9,275 $14,504 +$5,229 (+56%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $6,566 $2,807 −$3,759 (-57%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $1,051 $1,198 +$148 (+14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 70¢ $1,102 $1,196 +$93 (+8%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 62¢ 22¢ $2,306 $842 −$1,464 (-64%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $539 $551 +$12 (+2%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 78¢ $456 $468 +$12 (+3%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $450 $446 −$4 (-1%)
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? No 47¢ 50¢ $393 $418 +$25 (+6%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 59¢ $392 $393 +$0 (+0%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 75¢ $143 $206 +$63 (+44%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $224 $202 −$22 (-10%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $201 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $190 $193 +$3 (+2%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $184 $188 +$4 (+2%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $172 $182 +$10 (+6%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $141 $154 +$13 (+9%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 29¢ $125 $118 −$7 (-5%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 85¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 50¢ $67 $86 +$18 (+27%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 44¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+2%)
Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? No 72¢ 79¢ $61 $67 +$7 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $242 +$301 +125%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $104 +$36 +34%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +216%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 13 $148 +$102 +68%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $39 −$30 -78%
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 07 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $129 +$4 +3%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $771 −$771 -100%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ Jun 06 $0 +$1 +300%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 06 $204 +$108 +53%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 06 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A se May 30 $2,544 +$283 +11%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gran May 30 $29 +$11 +40%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 30 $17 +$32 +184%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 30 $39 +$41 +104%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 30 $194 +$92 +47%
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 30 $226 +$190 +84%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 30 $2,955 −$203 -7%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 30 $922 +$350 +38%
Will Esteban Lepaul be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 seas May 30 $304 +$379 +125%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 30 $2,007 +$685 +34%
Will Alavés be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $334 +$152 +46%
Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $2,159 +$414 +19%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 May 23 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings May 23 $134 −$16 -12%
Will Lens place 2nd for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? May 23 $23 +$4 +17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 23 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Lyon finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 23 $79 +$5 +6%
Will Rennes finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 23 $123 +$58 +47%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 22 $46 −$45 -100%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 10 $4,865 −$4,781 -98%
Will FC Koln be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season May 10 $93 +$113 +121%
Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 08 $651 −$632 -97%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 08 $24 +$244 +1013%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 08 $2 +$2 +79%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 04 $55 +$10 +18%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand May 04 $90 +$23 +26%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 04 $91 +$28 +31%
Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 s May 04 $117 +$13 +11%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 04 $141 +$24 +17%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 03 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 54¢ $1 19m
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $50 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 54¢ $16 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $14 4h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 4h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $96 7h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 7h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 7h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 7h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 9h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 9h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 9h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 9h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 9h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 9h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 11h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 45¢ $90 23h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 45¢ $83 23h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $173 23h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $204 23h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $128 23h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $215 23h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 23h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 45¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,520.11 · official $25,520.11 (match) · 3500 history records