Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ef…5a9e sports 1578 markets active 6h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$962 (+2%) realized +$965 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%1463W / 126L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$91
14 days−$90
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$392
other 41% +$213
crypto 1% −$23
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -19.3% -26.9% 77% 1% -27.1%
≤30d 210 -8.8% -17.5% 82% 12% -21.0%
≤90d 612 -3.5% -12.7% 84% 15% -9.7%
all 1589 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -8.7%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$965
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1463 / 126
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1589 / 1578
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 99¢ 50¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 131.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.51 · official $10.51 (match) · 3500 history records