Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30f0…031d other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$159 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$223
14 days−$259
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$165
crypto 15% +$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.5% -25.4% 0% 0% -32.7%
≤30d 10 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -34.5%
≤90d 10 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -34.5%
all 10 -28.6% -35.4% 0% 0% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 0% -34.5%
10% -41.6% 0% -40.8%
15% -47.2% 0% -46.5%
20% -52.4% 0% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$26 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $233 $262 +$29 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $50 $160 +$110 (+221%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $78 $48 −$30 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 21 $38 −$5 -13%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $505 −$137 -27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $144 −$62 -43%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$20 -39%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 9¢ $234 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 21¢ $33 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $201 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 23¢ $38 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $90 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $44 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $43 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $215 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $31 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $299 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $166 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 9d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $54 10d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.19 · official $1,084.91 · 47 history records