Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30f2…52b4 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+14%) realized −$76 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 41% -18.4%
≤30d 22 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 41% -18.4%
≤90d 22 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 41% -18.4%
all 22 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 41% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 36% -26.2%
15% -32.3% 23% -33.3%
20% -38.9% 14% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 3¢ 50¢ $10 $163 +$153 (+1532%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$31 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$33 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$80 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $13 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.15 · official $163.15 (match) · 89 history records