Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30f3…aa65
crypto · 538 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$85 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses390 / 147
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)537 / 538
History coverage29d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 537 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$26
14 days−$160
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 76¢ 82¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$9 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$93
sports 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $1 2m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $1 10m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 81¢ $5 12m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 75¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 34m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $12 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 34¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $1 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $1 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -6.4% -15.3% 64% 49% -13.2%
≤30d 537 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 42% -10.9%
≤90d 537 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 42% -10.9%
all 537 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 42% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 42% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 17% -19.4%
15% -29.2% 10% -27.2%
20% -36.2% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.66 · official $19.66 (match) · 2067 history records