Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30f8…3ce4
crypto · 43 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$3 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 55¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 62% -9.3%
≤30d 42 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 62% -9.3%
≤90d 42 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 62% -9.3%
all 42 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 62% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 62% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 50% -18.0%
15% -22.7% 36% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 21% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 110 history records