Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30f8…e0f3
sports · 321 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$464 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$518 · open +$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$414
Realized−$518
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses150 / 150
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions21
Markets (closed)300 / 321
History coverage81d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 21 History 300 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $38 $54 +$16 (+43%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 100¢ $15 $32 +$17 (+112%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 40¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 Yes 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$3 -23%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$8 -16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 −$5 -18%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$12 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$13 +83%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $58 −$56 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $15 +$12 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $15 +$10 +67%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $15 +$12 +79%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $15 +$9 +60%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $15 +$9 +62%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $5 +$35 +686%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $20 +$10 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$37 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$40 +776%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$12 +119%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $27 −$27 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $20 −$5 -23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 01 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 01 $12 +$10 +82%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $12 −$12 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $10 +$10 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $12 +$10 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$257
other 16% −$54
politics 2% −$109
world 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% −$17
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $15 11m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 52m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 52m
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $15 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $13 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 1h
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 27¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $15 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $20 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 0¢ $10 3d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 0¢ $16 3d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 0¢ $10 3d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 0¢ $5 3d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 0¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $15 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 92¢ $22 3d
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY BC Dubai 24¢ $10 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +15.2% +4.2% 52% 48% -10.3%
≤30d 120 +21.7% +10.1% 55% 54% -1.4%
≤90d 300 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 50% -17.2%
all 300 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 50% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 50% -17.2%
10% -14.6% 48% -25.1%
15% -22.8% 46% -32.4%
20% -30.4% 42% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.47 · official $414.48 (match) · 641 history records