Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x30f8…b824 other 894 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 253d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,349 (+1%) realized +$2,060 · open +$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate64%530W / 300L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$17,650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$5,040
14 days+$5,413
30 days+$5,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$1,049
sports 25% +$5,344
crypto 23% −$1,646
economics 10% +$569
world 9% +$272
finance 3% −$63
politics 2% +$210
tech 1% −$139
culture 1% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +18.3% +7.0% 59% 52% +15.3%
≤30d 197 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 28% +1.5%
≤90d 531 -28.3% -35.1% 51% 13% -10.4%
all 830 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 20% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 20% -8.4%
10% -22.6% 17% -17.1%
15% -30.1% 15% -25.2%
20% -36.9% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$44 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$17,650
Realized+$2,060
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses530 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions55
Markets (closed)830 / 894
History coverage253d ⚠
Avg bet$305
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,000 $3,039 +$39 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,400 $1,419 +$19 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,100 $1,105 +$5 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,017 +$17 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $993 $1,002 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,001 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $661 $692 +$31 (+5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $600 $605 +$5 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $500 $536 +$36 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $490 $496 +$7 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $449 $468 +$19 (+4%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $300 $338 +$38 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $164 $173 +$9 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 +$86 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $840 +$145 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$20 +13%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $937 +$963 +103%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $104 +$26 +25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,272 +$1,187 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,647 +$839 +51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $600 +$400 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $410 +$590 +144%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $540 +$460 +85%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $238 +$62 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $100 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $192 +$278 +144%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,213 +$297 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $364 +$656 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $147 +$43 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $476 −$398 -84%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +650%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $63 +$34 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $68 +$32 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $185 −$144 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $115 −$113 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $500 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,408 −$1,403 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,580 +$460 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $965 +$1,044 +108%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $135 +$97 +72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $501 +$610 +122%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $981 +$19 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$39 +39%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $350 −$343 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 +$55 +122%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY 3¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 20¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $81 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $51 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $30 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $85 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $107 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $840 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 50¢ $71 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a BUY 13¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,650.49 · official $17,677.76 (match) · 3500 history records